Expectations of a strong peak season in the global air cargo market are fading with new data showing slowing demand growth, easing spot rates and little appetite for additional charter capacity.
According to market intelligence firm Xeneta, global air cargo spot rates averaged US$3.12/kg in July, up 28% year on year but down 6% from June, marking a second consecutive month of slower growth after rates peaked in May.
Conversations with shippers suggests expectations for the traditional year-end peak season weakened significantly, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said.
“Our more positive outlook for 2026 is based on the strong growth at the start of the year but we expect a weaker second half. Very few people are talking about peak season.”
Only one customer has raised the possibility of peak season charters, signalling lower expectations for the coming months, he added.
The market is expected to continue softening through the Northern Hemisphere summer although Xeneta said lingering uncertainty about the conflict in the Middle East and fluctuating jet fuel prices are likely to slow, rather than reverse, the pace of rate declines.
Demand growth also lost momentum in July, increasing by 4% year on year compared with 8% in June, while available capacity rose 1% as the market continued to recover from earlier disruption linked to the Middle East conflict. Xeneta’s dynamic load factor increased to 61%, up two percentage points from the previous year.
The sharpest rate declines were recorded on Asia-Europe routes. Spot rates from Northeast Asia to Europe fell 13% month on month while China to Western Europe dropped 22% to US$4.15/kg. Xeneta said the timing suggests the European Union’s new customs duty on low-value imports, introduced on July 1, could already be affecting e-commerce volumes and reducing demand for dedicated freighter capacity on the corridor.
Despite the broader slowdown, rates on routes serving the Middle East remain well above pre-conflict levels with spot rates from South Asia to the region still 84% higher than before the escalation of the conflict in late February.
