The bulk of South Africa’s transport corridors are situated in the east of the country, which is expected to be the most affected by climate change.Speaking at the CESA infrastructure Indaba held in March, CSIR senior manager of strategic programmes, Njabulo Siyakatshana, said weather models predicted that f looding would become more frequent in the eastern half of the country – a region which has already suffered considerable storm damage.More f looding exposes Transnet to revenue losses through port and rail downtime, as well as property damage.Transnet Freight Rail’s network is particularly dense in the eastern part of the country, as is the concentration of Transnet Properties buildings.The north and north-east corridors account for 52% of Transnet revenue.Extreme temperature changes are also predicted for the eastern half of the country.Daily temperature highs could rise by as much as five degrees Celsius in some eastern regions, “leading to significant impacts on transport operations in those areas”.This will result in more disruptions in ore transport to port due to heat impact on rail lines.Extreme temperatures in combination with drier conditions could also lead to more wildfires.Wind speeds are also predicted to rise, which will affect port operations and landside transport.Also at risk is the main pipeline network serving Gauteng, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Free State. “Flooding can lead to soil subsidence, particularly in variable, steep, and rugged terrain, which could cause pipes to bend and shift,” he said.The impact on the Port of Durban includes more frequent and intense storms, rising sea levels which will increase the risk of storm surges and intense wave action, and increased wind speeds during spring and summer.Cape Town can expect more frequent droughts, an increase in summer wind speeds, but a decline in winter wind speeds.CSIR metocean engineer Vuyo Ndayi pointed out that the peak fresh fruit export season coincided with the windy season in Cape Town, which is positioned as “Africa’s premium fresh produce port”.These risks can be managed through a combination of terminal scheduling and operational planning, adaptations to the terminal infrastructure design and additional investment in the port infrastructure.CSIR civil engineering researcher Refiloe Mokoena said the logistics challenges were being compounded by the impact of climate change on the road corridors.There has been a 57% increase in f loods severe enough to damage infrastructure over the past two decades, causing damage estimated at R90 billion. If nothing is done about making the road infrastructure more climate resilient, the annual bill for repairs is expected to rise to between R2.1 and R4.2bn a year by 2050.Higher temperatures will cause road surfaces to deteriorate faster and put extra stresses on bridges.Flooding will increase the risk of landslides, road washaways and undercutting.Structural integrity of roads, bridges and tunnels could be affected by higher soil moisture levels.Drought, on the other hand, will result in shrinkage of sub-surface soils.Rising sea levels will erode the coastal road base, undermine bridge supports, and lead to the f looding of roads and tunnels by corrosive saltwater.ER
