African elections add to business risk

There are fears of the current
political instability in Arab
countries and West Africa
spreading as a record number of
African countries go to the polls
this year.
“This year is perhaps one of
the busiest years in the electoral
calendar of Africa since the 1990s,”
says Solomon A Dersso, senior
researcher, Peace and Security
Council Report Programme, of the
Institute for Security Studies (ISS)
Addis Ababa.
“More than 18 African countries
are scheduled to conduct elections
that might determine a change in
leadership,” he says.
Investors and the business
community – including the freight
industry – will be watching
developments carefully in order to
manage risk to their personnel and
operations.
West Africa is the busiest of
all with six countries, followed
by Southern Africa where four
countries including Madagascar are
expected to hold national elections.
Central and East Africa will each
have elections in three countries,
and two countries in North Africa
will go to the polls this year.
“While elections bring
enthusiasm and hope for democratic
consolidation and change, more
often than not elections in Africa
are also notorious for spawning
violence,” says Dersso.
Violence and destabilisation
could derail economic recovery, for
which the signs are good, according
to Mthuli Ncube, chief economist
at the African Development Bank
(AfDB).
Speaking in Davos, Switzerland,
he said Africa could see gross
domestic product growth of 6% this
year and, potentially, between 6.2%
and 6.5% in 2012.