Following three consecutive years of weakness, global growth is projected to hold steady at 2.6% in 2024 before edging up to an average of 2.7% in 2025-26.
That’s the word from deputy chief economist of the World Bank Group, Ayhan Kose, who provides his insights into the latest World Bank flagship Global Economic Prospects Report published twice a year.
“Growth will be around 2.6%. And in fact, next year, we are expecting a little bit of a pick-up,” he said.
However, in the case of emerging developing economies, he predicts growth of around 4%. “So all in all, we see a soft landing is set for the global economy. Having said this, there are significant growth challenges. Against the background of stability, growth is weak relative to what we have seen in the previous decade.”
In the decade pre-Covid, growth averaged around 3.1%. “So when you look at our forecast horizon all the way to 2026, we are expecting 60% of economies to have slower growth than what they actually experienced in the decade prior to the pandemic on average. These 60% of economies account for 80% of global output, and of course, they are home to 80% of the global population. So there is weakness when it comes to growth around the world, and of course, that weakness comes with significant risks as well.”
An increase in the number of trade protectionist measures has been flagged as a major concern. “And, of course, major economies are becoming inward-looking in the sense that they are imposing all types of restrictions on cross-border commerce. In fact, the number of trade restrictions has doubled since the pandemic, and when you look around the world, trade policy uncertainty has skyrocketed,” Kose points out.
This is due in part to the many major elections taking place globally this year.
