Import cargo at the United States main container ports is expected to drop dramatically from May according to the Global Port Tracker report released on Wednesday.
Despite US President Donald Trump’s surprise about-turn announcement that he had suspended hefty tariffs for 90 days on more than 75 of the US’s trading partners – except for China which he has ramped up to a 125% tariff – a baseline 10% tariff will still be imposed on all imports to the country.
This effectively removes the benefits of trade deals and duty-free arrangements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) which gave 32 African countries, including South Africa, competitive access to the US market.
“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
“Tariffs are taxes on US importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other. At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”
Following tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico announced earlier this year, Trump last week set a minimum tariff of 10% on all US trading partners, and “reciprocal” tariffs as high as 50% on dozens of nations, which he suspended on Wednesday while the US negotiates with its trading partners.
China has announced tariffs on US goods, prompting Trump to announce additional tariffs on the country, bringing the rate to 125%.
Imports during the second half of 2025 were expected to be down at least 20% year-on-year, said Hackett Associates Founder, Ben Hackett.
Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.
“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” said Hackett.
“At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.06 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in February, although the Ports of New York and New Jersey have yet to report final data.
This was down 7.5% from January but up 5.2% year-on-year. It was the busiest February in three years, even though the month is traditionally the slowest of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.
Ports have not yet reported March’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1% year-on-year.
April, which includes cargo shipped before the new tariffs were announced, is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 3.1% annually.
However, May is expected to end 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth, dropping sharply to 1.66 million TEU, down 20.5% from the same time last year. June is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, the lowest volume since February 2023 and a 26.6% drop annually.
Before the latest round of tariffs was announced, April was forecast at 2.13 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year; May at 2.14 million TEU, up 2.8%; June at 2.07 million TEU, down 3.2%, and July at 1.99 million TEU, down 13.9%.
The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 11.73 million TEU, down 2.9% annually rather than the total of 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year, that was forecast before the tariffs announcement.
Imports have been elevated since last summer, first as retailers brought in cargo ahead of an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and then in anticipation of an escalation of tariffs after the November elections.
Imports during 2024 totalled 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.
