Expectations of a poor maize harvest in Zimbabwe could provide a window of opportunity for South African farmers and traders in the 2018/19 marketing year.
According to Agricultural Business Chamber economist Wandile Sihlobo, a reduction in area planted, lower yields in some areas, and unfavourable weather early in the season have led to the poor outlook, placing the country in a net importing position.
The Zimbabwean government will therefore need to lift its maize import ban which was implemented in October last year when domestic production recovered to 2.2 million tons – the largest harvest in 23 years.
Recent data from the US Department of Agriculture projects that Zimbabwe’s 2017/18 maize production could be 46% lower than last season’s crop, at 1.2 million tons.
“Given that Zimbabwe’s annual maize consumption could vary between 1.8 million and 1.9 million tons, even with the additional 500 000 surplus from the previous year, around 720 000 tons of volume would still need to be imported to supplement domestic supplies,” said Sihlobo.
He pointed out that prior to the import ban, South Africa’s average maize exports to Zimbabwe accounted for nearly a third of overall maize exports between 2001 and 2017.
“Since the collapse of the sector after the land reform programme in the early 2000s, the country has been one of the key markets for South African maize,” he said.
Additionally, Sihlobo noted that South African maize exporters would face limited competition since traditional producers such as Zambia and Malawi were set to record a decline in maize production.
