As the 2025 expiry date of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) draws closer, questions are being raised about what the future holds for trade between Africa and the United States (US).Most analysts agree that even though not all the goals of Agoa have been realised, the agreement, overall, has had a net-positive impact on Africa’s trade volumes and economic diversification efforts.Enacted into law in 2000, Agoa was designed to enhance designated sub-Saharan African countries’ market access to the US by providing duty-free treatment for specific import categories. To qualify for Agoa, countries were expected to demonstrate progress towards market liberalisation.To date, the act remains the cornerstone of Africa-US preferential market access, with the legislation accounting for virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa’s non-most-favoured nation (MFN) exports to the US.According to the US Census Bureau, total two-way goods trade with sub-Saharan Africa totalled $44.8 billion in 2021, a 21.8% increase from $36.7bn in 2019. Exports from the US were $16.5bn in 2021, up from $15.8bn in 2019, while imports from Africa were $28.2bn in 2021, up from $21bn in 2019.But questions remain over what will happen in 2025. The Brookings Institution, a non-profit public policy organisation based in Washington, says guidance can be taken from the recently released US strategy towards sub-Saharan Africa that calls for the US to reset its relations with African counterparts.The strategy, which reiterates President Joe Biden’s commitment to make Africa a priority for the US, is based on four pillars: fostering openness and open societies, delivering democratic and security dividends, advancing pandemic recovery and economic opportunity, and supporting conservation, climate adaptation and a just energy transition.The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) points out that a lot has changed in the global political and economic landscape since the enactment of Agoa in 2000. It has developed three scenarios that could transpire.In the first scenario, the US would make no changes and renew Agoa. This, according to the CSIS, would be strategically unimaginative and politically unappealing.In the second scenario, the US could do nothing and let Agoa expire. This scenario, argues the CSIS, would be short-sighted and potentially catastrophic to US foreign policy and national security interests.The third scenario is to let Agoa go, but reimagine US-Africa relations by allowing for a newer, more holistic strategy.
