hile both the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia suffered their first recessions in years in 2020 due to Covid-19 lockdowns, both economies are expected to grow in 2021.According to the African Development Bank (Af DB), the DRC experienced its first recession in 18 years.The DRC’s real GDP contracted by 1.7% in 2020 after increasing by 4.4% in 2019 and 5.8% in 2018.Growth is expected to return in 2021 and 2022 if the pandemic is brought under control and global demand recovers.“Real GDP is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022, driven by higher prices for major mining products, such as copper, and recovery in both consumption and investment,” states the Af DB.The World Bank adds a caveat to the growth prospects for the DRC. It states, “although the DRC initiated reforms aimed at strengthening governance in the management of natural resources and improving the business climate, the country is ranked 183 out of 190 countries in the 2020 Doing Business report. Key governance indicators remain weak”.In Zambia, economic prospects are inf luenced by a large demographic shift. It is one of the world’s youngest countries by median age.Its population, much of it urban, is estimated at about 17.9 million and growing rapidly at 2.8% per year, resulting in the population doubling close to every 25 years, according to the World Bank.“This trend is expected to continue as the large youth population enters reproductive age, which will put even more pressure on the demand for jobs, health care and other social services,” it adds.In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic pushed into contraction an economy that was already weakened by recent persistent droughts, falling copper prices and unsustainable fiscal policies, according to the World Bank.Mining and services suffered from lower global demand.However, relaxation of the lockdown measures in the second half, and a global pick-up of copper prices, helped activity to recover.Overall, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 1.2% in 2020 – the first recession for Zambia since 1998.A gradual recovery is expected, with GDP growth projected at 1.8% in 2021, averaging 2.8% over 2021-23.Higher copper prices, the commissioning of a new hydropower station, and a return to normal rainfall patterns are expected to support growth in agriculture and electricity production, key contributors to Zambia’s industry and service sectors.“However, the impact of Covid-19 will continue to dampen activity, especially in tourism and retail and wholesale trade,” Real GDP is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022 in the DRC.– AfDB“
