Global container volumes are on an upward trajectory, with January recording 15.4 million TEUs, a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 5.8%, according to data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS).
“Using the CTS data, we calculate that global TEU miles – adjusting for nautical distance sailed – grew 8.1% y-o-y in January, soaking up more vessel capacity,” says Alan Murphy, CEO of maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence.
Growth in head-haul container trades in January was also very strong, at 12.9% y-o-y.
TEU miles growth rates were even higher throughout 2024, more than 20%, but this was due to the rerouting of container services from Suez around Africa due to the Red Sea crisis, and thus not by an underlying strength in container demand, he points out.
“January 2025 is the first month with an apples-to-apples y-o-y comparison of going around Africa, so the 8.1% growth reflects real, distance-adjusted container demand.
“That said, the shifting timing of Chinese New Year (CNY) means that January figures should always be considered with some caution.”
Another way to gauge the strength of the market is by looking at utilisation. “Measures of utilisation somewhat alleviate the timing concern of CNY, as the carriers will have adjusted their networks to match supply to the expected seasonal CNY drop in container demand.”
On Asia-Europe, utilisation at a monthly level dropped in January, whereas this drop typically only begins after CNY. “This is likely a part of the explanation for the early drop in spot rates on this trade lane in January.
“On Asia-North America, there is a clear strengthening of utilisation in January. This trade also saw spot rates hold firm longer than in Asia-Europe, lending credence to the notion that lower utilisation is one of the drivers behind the early drop in Asia-Europe spot rates. On Europe-North America, however, there was a sharp drop in utilisation in January, but curiously, without a major drop in spot rates – at least not yet.”
