Shipping data services provider Container Trades Statistics (CTS) Limited has reported a large seasonal decline for loaded box traffic in September, reports Simon Heaney, senior manager for container research at liner trade consultancy Drewry.
Global shipments were down 5.9% month on month (m-o-m) in September to 15.2 million TEUs, the lowest since April.
Heaney said September was prone to such declines, with volumes down in August every year dating back to at least September 2012, the start of the CTS series.
“The most recent m-o-m slide was steeper than the 2.5% m-o-m drop for the same month in 2023, but not as bad as the 8.8% fall from August to September in 2022.
“While lower than the previous month, September’s global total was 2.3% higher than the same month last year, although it was the lowest annual increase for the year so far, dragging the nine-month year-to-date (YTD) growth rate down to 6.3%.”
Heaney added that all regions remained positive for growth YTD in terms of total liftings, but there was a significant high-low spread from North America at 10.3% to sub-Saharan Africa at 1.9%.
“When looking at imports, three regions posted year-on-year (y-o-y) deficits in September: South Asia and Middle East – 4.9%; Oceania – 4.2%; Sub-Saharan Africa - 1.2%. In the export market, two regions were down y-o-y in the same month: North America – 3.0%; Europe – 0.6%.
“North America outshone every other region for imports in September, with 7.6% y-o-y growth, even though there was a similar m-o-m decrease.
“All eyes will be on this region following the resounding US presidential election victory for Donald Trump on November 5.”
Heaney emphasised that Trump had promised to introduce some hefty tariffs on US imports during his campaign, which was expected to see many shippers bringing shipments forward.
“There is, however, a significant information gap in terms of the starting point for any new tariffs, their magnitude, and how many trading partners it will apply to, although we can safely assume that China will be most affected.
“There seems to be a distinct divide between certain groups in terms of what election promises Donald Trump will keep. Investors and business leaders seem to think tariffs are merely a negotiating tactic, all just part of the Trump show.
“Voters, on the other hand, appear to believe he will actually deliver. Both cannot be right. This situation adds to the uncertainty within the US container market, which is already bracing for more potential port labour disruption on the US East Coast and Gulf in January.”
