Geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change could lead to more turbulence in the bulk shipping market, warns the International Monetary Fund in a “Commodity Special Feature”.This echoes the DMCC “Future of Trade 2024” report, which states that, as the global climate drive continues, the growth in environmental technologies like renewable energy and power infrastructure, AI, automation and electric vehicles (EVs) is set to disrupt commodities markets in several ways. Demand is expected to grow for key battery raw materials, such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth metals.Some analysts predict at least 10 million metric tons of copper alone will be needed to satisfy demand in these sectors. However, “the concentration of commodities in a select number of countries poses new geopolitical risks as their strategic importance is heightened. “As supply is strained, this could lead to new trade tensions, disruption and pricing dynamics,” the report adds.The demand could also be a bubble.Billions of dollars are being spent on research into alternative chemistries for batteries which do not rely on lithium or other rare earth metals. Sodium-ion batteries are already being used by energy companies around the world.Green hydrogen is emerging as a potentially viable emission-free alternative to electric vehicles, and biofuels are back on the horizon.The EV market is also going through a rough patch due to slowing demand and a trade war developing between China and the West that could impact the f low of bulk materials.The United States, Canada and the European Union have raised tariffs on imported Chinese-made electric vehicles in order to protect their home manufacturers and to boost research and development.A shift in production volumes from China to the West could “trigger a new wave of trade divergence in the global EV market, and bring significant disruptions to the commodities the industry depends on – from lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite as the primary raw materials in lithium-ion batteries, to rare earths, copper, aluminium and steel,” warns the DMCC report.Another factor which will affect the f low of bulk cargo is the coming on stream of new mines.According to Erik Deitersen, managing director of ABiQ, there are currently 99 major new mine projects and upgrades worth $55 billion in Africa. South Africa (12 new mines and mine expansions) leads in the number of projects/new mines or mine expansions, followed by Ghana, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, each of which has seven projects.
