Analysts are advising airfreight operators to buckle their seatbelts, with high expectations that 2023 is going to be a bumpy ride. Whilst the turbulence experienced in the global air freight market in 2022 eased at the end of the year, the sector is not out of the woods yet.As available capacity in the airfreight sector continues to recover to above pre-pandemic levels, global air cargo volumes are on a downward trend, said Xeneta analyst Wenwen Zhang.“Global air cargo capacity increased in February for the eleventh consecutive month,” she said during an online event. “Compared to the same period last year capacity is up by 11%.”At the same time rates had consistently fallen since last year with the global average airfreight spot rate currently at $2,73, a decline of 35% year-on-year. “Rates, however, remain 52% ahead of the pre-Covid level that we saw in 2019,” said Zhang.Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said the latest data from CLIVE Data Services, a part of Xeneta, meant it was time for the industry to let go of pre-Covid comparisons and to acknowledge a new baseline for air cargo market growth.“CLIVE Data Services was one of the first industry analysts to benchmark data versus the pre-pandemic level because a comparison was needed at the time to accurately measure air cargo’s performance. “But the fascination and rhetoric around airfreight rates going back to the 2019 level need to be replaced based on the inf lationary components we now see. Name me a service or product that you acquired four years ago that you’re still paying the same price for now. “The air cargo industry should be focused on where growth is going to come from because the general air cargo volumes have seen negative growth for four years, and based on the first two months of 2023 are still -8% in terms of chargeable weight compared to four years ago. “That is not a growth market,” he said, adding 2019 was also a relatively weak year for air cargo after a buoyant 2018.Global air cargo volumes fell 4% year-on-year in February. “The volumes are not there, f lights are less full, and more capacity will be coming in April as summer f light schedules commence, so I don’t see fundamental changes that will help the current market conditions. “There is a hope and expectation of volumes increasing in the third quarter as companies restock, but when I talk to shippers, I don’t hear anyone saying they’re going to ship more airfreight. “If restocking comes, many shippers will look first to use cheaper modes of transport and, from where we are now, even if there is a boost, we might still be seeing zero overall growth for general air cargo by later in the year,” said Van de Wouw.Recent data released by the International Air Transport Association (Iata) for January supports Xeneta’s findings. According to Iata, global demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometres, fell by 14,9% in January compared to January 2022 while capacity was up 3,9%
