The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become “broader and stronger,” according to the April World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund.
It has raised the estimate for global growth to 3.9% for this year and 2019.
“Helping to drive this output acceleration is faster growth in the euro area, Japan, China, and the United States, all of which grew above expectations last year, along with some recovery in commodity exporters.
“Along with China, several other emerging market and developing economies will also do better this year than in our past projections — that group includes Brazil, Mexico, and emerging Europe. The aggregate gains for this country group are, however, weighed down by sharp downward revisions for a few countries in the grip of civil strife, notably Libya, Venezuela, and Yemen,” it says.
But, the report warns: “Future growth prospects look challenging indeed for advanced economies and many commodity exporters. In advanced economies, aging populations and lower projected advances in total factor productivity will make it hard to return to the pre-crisis (2008-2009) pace for the average household’s income growth”.
It predicts that the South African economy will grow from 1.3% in 2017 to 1.5% this year and 1.7% in 2019. This is 0.6% and 0.9% higher than the January predictions.
“Business confidence is likely to gradually firm up with the change in the political leadership, but growth prospects remain weighed down by structural bottlenecks.
“The medium-term outlook is subdued, with growth expected to stabilise at 1.8% over 2020–23.
