After a remarkable year in 2024, the airfreight industry is set for continued growth and new challenges in 2025. Experts in the field, including Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, Adriaan den Heijer, executive vice president at Air France-KLM Cargo, and Milena Milenkovic, regional airfreight manager for Benelux at Flexport, say that while growth is expected to persist, it will be more modest compared to 2024, with single-digit increases anticipated.“2024 was a remarkable year across the spectrum from two key perspectives,” said Van de Wouw. “First, the growth in volumes exceeded everyone’s expectations. To be honest, we had only projected a modest 1-2% growth pre-Red Sea, but what transpired was double-digit growth, driven by a surge in global commerce.”He said the other standout in 2024 was the performance in the fourth quarter of the year. “From an industry analyst’s perspective, it was clear that we were witnessing the potential for the strongest quarter yet. 2023 was challenging for the airfreight sector, with shippers under pressure from high rates and lower service reliability. However, in 2024, volumes were up by 10%, capacity had increased by 4%, and despite this, the situation was not as chaotic as it may have seemed.”He said freight forwarders and airlines alike had learned valuable lessons since the Covid pandemic and were much better prepared to deal with sudden shifts in volume. Shippers, too, have become more savvy in managing terms and conditions, which has helped avoid the wild rate f luctuations that have occurred in the past. “With these kinds of volumes, under that level of pressure, and with those rates, it was impressive to see how the industry managed and adapted,” he said.It was unlikely that 2025 would play out in the same way, said Den Heijer. “The outlook suggests more tempered growth compared to 2024. Our expectation is that we will see only single-digit increases. Factors such as shifting geopolitical landscapes and changing sourcing strategies are having an impact.”He stated that demand would continue to surpass supply. “We will be scaling back capacity on several routes, particularly in the East.”Milenkovic noted that, to some extent, 2025 would mirror 2024. “E-commerce will remain a significant driver of airfreight demand. However, we are increasingly observing industries, particularly in Europe, shifting towards more local sourcing strategies. I don’t anticipate double-digit growth for the sector.”Van de Wouw and Den Heijer concurred that the residual effects of the weak performance in 2023, following several exceptionally strong years, needed to be filtered out to gain a clearer understanding of what 2025 might hold for the airfreight sector at large.“There are still some political developments that need to unfold and uncertainties in the market,” said Den Heijer. “But I think we can safely predict slower growth for 2025.” LV
