As countries continue to recover after the global Covid-19 pandemic, economists and analysts are upbeat about East Africa – a region that is booming and showing significant growth potential.According to the African Development Bank, while East Africa is yet to achieve pre-Covid growth levels, it has bounced back extremely well after the pandemic, showing strong economic recovery in 2021 with expectations of at least 4.7% growth in 2022. This year is set to be even higher, and economists are forecasting growth for the region of at least 5.5%.This growth is supported by sustained public spending on flagship infrastructure projects, while the recovery of trade and tourism has also contributed, says Duncan Bonnett, a partner at Africa House.“The projected strong growth is not homogenous across the region. Some countries are doing better than others, but overall the East African story is one of good news, with most countries in the region seeing growth of 3% or more. All indications are that this will continue for years to come,” he told Freight News. “Over the next five years, the growth forecast is very positive, with at least five of the ten largest economies in Sub-Sahara being in East Africa by 2027.”He said the outlook for the five countries – Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda – was of such a nature that only one was expected to have an economy under $100 billion by then.“This is significant and speaks directly to the growth these countries – and the region – is experiencing. It is probably the most integrated economic community in terms of trade and movement of people and goods on the continent. A lot of effort is also going into improving that integration in the region.”Bonnett said large-scale investments into ports, roads and rail were ongoing, while the use of ITC and technology was on the increase.“The consumption of cement, for example, has increased by between 10 and 15% per year in Tanzania. This highlights the increased consumption we are seeing from infrastructure projects, commercial properties and the housing sector.”Mining – particularly oil and gas – is once again high on the agenda of several of the governments in East Africa, while countries such as the DRC are seeing increased demand for critical minerals needed for the energy transition.He said the potential of each country in East Africa had to be viewed from a regional perspective as that was where the strength lay. “East African countries have realised they can go further together than when working alone. Neighbouring countries are working together to address areas of risk and to improve infrastructure.”The region, however, did have some risks, with brewing conf lict in the eastern DRC worrisome.“At this stage, there is no indication that this will become a regional conf lict, but tensions have been brewing,” said Bonnett. “Yes, there is some political instability, particularly in the eastern DRC, but overall we are seeing an increased appetite for investment and an understanding of how to manage the risks in East Africa.”
