In an economic environment struggling to cope after the full-force blow of Covid-19, urban landscapes will change dramatically.According to economist Mike Schüssler, all indications are that the city centre is dead while the suburbs will become hubs of activity. He forecasts that courier companies will grow, but it will be a very competitive game involving smaller vehicles like bakkies and scooters.
“Trucking will grow, but destinations will change. Retail may become the warehouse,” he said during a recent webinar on the economic impact of the coronavirus on the economy .As the provincial and national ‘governments work’ to revive economic activity, Schüssler said the country could expect one of the worst GDP per capita declines in the world.
“The situation is bad. South Africa was already in a weak growth cycle before the pa ndem ic . We are going to see unemployment rise by at least 36%.”Schüssler said it would take years to recover to “normal”. Looking at the impact of the lockdown, he said countries where lockdowns had been “harder” faced bigger economic impact. “
Hard lockdowns killed economies. China did not lockdown half of their economy. They never closed Beijing, for example. They did stop the virus from spreading out of one area and so it did not hit the rest of the country that hard. It will be one of only two countries to see positive growth this year, the other being Egypt.”
Many of Gauteng’s top industries have been severely impacted by the pandemic. Airfreight, said Schüssler, was one and vehicles another.“There has been a decimation in some industries. Motor vehicle sales are not expected to recover soon as consumers are going to be far more cautious going forward. Consumers are going to be buying fewer cars and houses and less furniture.”
He said a shift to cheaper services would also continue for the foreseeable future. “The average person will afford fewer goods and services than before.”
