South Africa could emerge more speedily than expected from the technical recession it finds itself in, data aggregator Experian SA has said after the release of its latest Business Debt Index (BDI). According to the company’s third quarter (Q3) BDI, improved economic conditions pushed the index to 0.261 compared to 0.044 for the same period a year ago. As a result it is hoped that the last few months of the year could herald the country’s recovery from the recession when Experian’s BDI for Q4 is released early next year. “The better-than-expected economic data experienced in Q3 is a relief from the recessionary conditions experienced in the first half of the year,” said David Coleman, chief data officer at Experian. However, he also indicated that the BDI “suggests that despite improving business debt conditions, the index is still well down on levels experienced in 2014 and before that in 2011”. Thankfully the current trend of improved data fed back from economic indicators are expected to continue, particularly from strengthening positions in the sectors for manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail. It is not certain to what extent last week’s Black Friday shopping frenzy, an artificial consumer phenomenon, will manifest as an anomaly in forthcoming data. It is also comes as a surprise that the manufacturing sector appears to be doing well, or better than before at least, considering consistent reports that this sector is not performing.
