Although it’s a constitutional responsibility of the state to ensure that the country is secure, the paradoxical reality of South African citizens staying on while things fall apart is to make sure that they are “state secure”, says Chris Hattingh from the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA).
Talking about the CRA’s outlook at a time when severe planned power outages and political and social instability are the order of the day, the senior policy analyst said: “South Africans across race lines are becoming more worried about the country.
“In polling that we’ve done over the last two years, most of the respondents say their quality of life has gotten worse over the last five years.”
Hattingh emphasises that all the ingredients are there for more unrest and violence, and no wiggle room for sugar-coating the think tank’s assessment of South Africa’s current outlook.
“Cost of living is going up, and on the load-shedding front, I don’t see Eskom turning things around substantively with the next five years – if indeed by that point.”
Remarkably though, polling by the CRA shows that citizens remain resilient, despite all the uncertainty and widespread destruction of a once-functional country by a government riddled with the rot of corruption, divisiveness and incompetence.
“South Africans across the board just want things to work, to have a job etcetera,” Hattingh says.
“We’ve seen ANC-EFF support decline at the voting booth, and support for potential coalition parties on the rise.”
Based on its current trajectory of misrule and malfeasance, the ANC seems on course to fall below 50% of electoral support in next year’s national election. However, Hattingh warns that the ANC could also win more than 45% of support and then enter into a coalition with the EFF.
“It is my subjective hope that we see a big turnout in 2024, and people vote for other parties, especially the DA, Action SA, Freedom Front, and the IFP. Then, perhaps, the rot can be arrested and (the country) slowly turned around.”
He remarked though that through to 2030, “things are going to be tough in SA.
“If we start to see ANC support decline further, and better policies implemented, the country has real potential in the next decade.”
