Cyclone season in Mozambique, which has seen the temporary closure of ports and damage to the road and rail infrastructure, has once again put the spotlight on climate change and how it will affect logistics in the region.“Over the coming decades, the type and amount of trade carried by sea will change, influenced by climate policy as well as other economic factors,” write Susan Hanson and Robert Nicholls in their paper: Demand for Ports to 2050: Climate Policy, Growing Trade and the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise.“Ports will need to respond to indirect effects of climate change as well as more direct effects of sea-level rise, while maintaining their efficiency and reliability as part of global trade systems.” The success or otherwise of port operators to anticipate and mitigate climate change will have a direct impact on the viability of the local and regional logistics sector, they point out.“Transport and logistics companies will need to consider potential changes in trade patterns; new transport corridors will emerge, especially between Asia and Africa, Asia and South America, as well as intra-Asian. “Therefore, countries with good planning processes in place and a strategic long-term approach to the development of good infrastructure and suitable funding sources (whether public or private) will be best placed to benefit from changes in the seaborne transport of goods,” state the authors.Some progress is being made in southern Africa.Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) has commissioned a three-year study into the impact of climate change on the eight commercial ports.In its request for proposal issued in mid-2020, Transnet states that one of its concerns is that the Mozambican cyclones hit the ports of Richards Bay and Durban.There is also a concern about “extreme wind events”.Sea levels are already rising, by around 15cm/century along the west coast, and 25cm/century on the east coast.One of the tasks of the consultants will be to determine whether the level is likely to rise faster or slower. In Namibia, the African Development Bank insisted on a climate change adaptation plan being included in the design of the new Walvis Bay container terminal, which was financed by the bank.It states in the environmental and social assessment of the project that: “Climate change studies have shown that there is a chance of 30cm sea level rise in the area.” Namibia’s Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) states that “development of new infrastructure such as roads, buildings, sewerage works, rail networks, water and energy systems must be designed and constructed with consideration for the future impacts of climate change”.It adds: “High sea level rise may inundate coastal towns, including Walvis Bay, Namibia’s only deepwater harbour and the diamond and fishing harbour of Lüder itz.”Mozambique, which is presently on the front line of climate change, has had international help in its efforts to mitigate the impact of extreme weather.The country has about 2 300 kilometres of coastline – as well as nine river basins prone to f looding.The challenges are daunting – Mozambique is ranked as the 35th most vulnerable country in the world to climate change, and the 24th least ready country, according to a climate change profile commissioned by the Netherlands ministry of foreign affairs.There is more than logistics links that are and will be affected.“The densely populated coastal lowlands will be increasingly affected by severe erosion, saltwater intrusion, loss of vital infrastructure and the spread of diseases such as malaria, cholera, and influenza,” state the authors of the study.Beira is singled out as being particularly vulnerable to erosion, which could see the coastline pushed back by as much as 500 metres in parts of the country.In Maputo, the sea level rose by 3cm between 1961 and 2001, according to the report.While more severe cyclones were identified as the main threat for the coastal region until 2030, accelerating sea level rise is expected to present the greatest danger after 2030.Rising sea levels also threaten the future of the Port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.There are other risks for logistics companies working in the country. The Migration Policy Institute warns that “in relatively peaceful Tanzania, climate change and migration can spur conflict”.Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) has commissioned a three-year study into the impact of climate change on the eight commercial ports.
