Container cargo volumes are expected to grow only 3-4% this year compared to f leet growth, estimated at around 9.5%, according to Bimco, the world's largest direct-membership organisation for shipowners, charterers, shipbrokers and agents.This comes amidst ongoing global uncertainty as ships remain under attack in the Red Sea, forcing container lines to take longer routes via the Cape. This has led to a tightening of the supply/demand balance, which immediately spiked freight rates, time charter rates and fixture periods."Despite a slight fall after the Chinese New Year, average freight rates for containers loading in China are currently 52% higher than in December 2023. We doubt whether freight rates will increase in line with cargo volumes strengthening in the second quarter of the year as the f leet grows faster," reads the latest Bimco analysis on container shipping. "Once the Red Sea crisis is resolved, freight rates should begin to fall in line with the weakening of the supply/demand balance.According to analysts, as this temporary increase in demand for ships is not related to cargo volume growth, it follows that ship demand will fall in 2025.It is not only freight rates that have spiked this year but time charter rates have also increased by a whopping 41% since December. Average fixture periods have increased by three months. It's expected that rates could stay high as liner operators look to secure sufficient tonnage to maintain services despite the longer sailing distances.Bimco said it forecasts container volume growth to be slightly faster than the world economy, which is estimated to grow by only about 3.1% this year compared to 3% in 2023."China is forecast to continue to suffer from its ongoing real estate sector crisis, seeing growth slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4% in 2024 and to 4.1% in 2025," reads the Bimco report.This will drag growth in the entire East and Southeast Asia region.In the US, growth is predicted to fall from 2.5% in 2023 to around 2.1% this year – and even more to 1.7% in 2025.India, expected to be the fastest-growing major economy this year, will also see its growth fall from 6.7% in 2023 to 6.5% in 2024 and 2025. The subcontinent and Middle East regions will grow slightly faster over the next two years, as is the case in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, no figures from Bimco are available for the area yet."We forecast that import volumes in East and Southeast Asia, Europe, the Mediterranean and North America will see average annual growth during 2024. The Indian subcontinent, Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and Central and South America are expected to grow faster than average."
