Electric vehicles (EV) are projected by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to make up 31% of the global vehicle f leet by 2050, reaching 672 million vehicles.This creates both opportunities and threats for African miners and their logistics chains – opportunities in terms of rapidly growing demand for certain minerals, and threats in that there could be less demand for steel by the auto industry.According to Wenyu Yao and Rico Luman of analysts ING, a life-cycle analysis of a full-steel and a full-aluminium EV finds that an aluminium EV emits 1.5 tons less in greenhouse gases over its life cycle compared to a steel EV (including production, driving distance of 150 000km and recycling).Freight News looks at the prospects for miners in Africa. Aluminium Aluminium is replacing steel in order to reduce weight, for both conventional and electric cars. It is produced from bauxite ore. Around one-third of the world’s proven bauxite reserves are in just three African countries – Ghana, Sierra Leone and Guinea.Guinea has the world’s largest bauxite deposits and has rapidly expanded production, growing its global market share from 4% in 2014 to 22% in 2020, with the biggest export destination being China.Ongoing political instability in Guinea is creating opportunities for other producers, such as Egypt, Cameroon and South Africa. CopperMost Western original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have announced plans to phase out internal combustion engines completely by 2035. The Chinese government has said it plans to ban internal combustion vehicles in the near future, while India (the world’s fourth-largest market) plans to make two-thirds of new vehicles electric by 2030.This is good news for copper producers as EVs use four times more copper than vehicles with internal combustion power plants. In addition, the charging infrastructure is largely copper-based.Africa’s top producer is the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which produced around 1.4 million metric tons of copper in 2020. Zambia was second, at 861 100 metric tons.Namibia is emerging as a major producer due to its social and political stability and port infrastructure. A number of international exploration companies are active in the country.Trigon Metals of Canada has revived production at the Kombat mine in the Otavi region and produced its first concentrate in December 2021. CobaltA by-product of the refinement of nickel and copper, cobalt is a critical element in Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminium) battery technologies account for over 90% of the global EV battery market, according to Stratas Advisors.The World Economic Forum’s Global Battery Alliance predicts a four-fold increase in demand for cobalt by 2030 as a result of the electrification of transport.More than 70% of the world’s cobalt is produced in the DRC.Madagascar and South Africa are a far second and third. GraphiteOEMs are concerned about the control that China has on graphite supply, and this is creating opportunities in Africa.The automotive industry has traditionally utilised graphite for brake linings, gaskets and clutch materials, and it is now an essential element in batteries. According to AMG Graphite, demand is expected to quadruple by 2030. Graphite is used in the anodes of lithium-ion batteries. Approximately 15% of global production comes from the continent of Africa. Mines in Mozambique and Madagascar are the largest producers. Currently, there are eight operational f lake graphite producers in Africa: four in Madagascar, two in Mozambique, and one each in Namibia and Tanzania, according to a British Geological Survey (BGS) report by Clive Mitchell and Eimear Dea dy. Graphite exploration programmes are ongoing in Botswana, Ghana, Guinea, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda, according to the report. LithiumOEMs have invested heavily in different chemical compounds to minimise use of battery metals like cobalt — which is sometimes mined in unethical conditions. Lithium, however, provides the foundation of most battery technologies in commercial use and development.According to the BGS, African countries with potential for lithium mining include Zimbabwe, Namibia, Ghana, the DRC and Mali. With very little capacity for lithium processing in the countries, the bulk will be exported as concentrate, states the BGS. Nickel Nickel is used in the batteries of EVs. Two of the most commonly used batteries, Nickel Cobalt Aluminium (NCM), and Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) use 80% and 33% nickel respectively, according to the Nickel Institute.In addition, chromium-nickel plated parts are used for exterior finishes.Africa’s major nickel producers are Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe.Much of the South African and Zimbabwean nickel is a by-product of platinum-group element mining in the Bushveld Complex and Great Dyke.Other producers are due to come online. In September 2021, the Burundi government hired a consulting firm to help it find financial partners to develop the Musongati nickel mine.According to TanzaniaInvest, the Kabanga deposit in the west of the country “is acknowledged to be one of the largest and richest undeveloped nickel sulphide deposits known at present, of unmatched scale and g ra de”.Platinum group There is uncertainty about future demand for platinum. At present, demand is driven by the automotive sector. Platinum is used in autocatalysts, sensors and spark plugs. Autocatalysts account for over 95% of total automotive demand.Of all the drive types, only battery EVs do not contain any platinum group metals.However, hydrogen-fuel-cell technology is gaining momentum, and it relies on platinum, which can withstand higher temperatures than other metals. Platinum is used for the catalyst that separates hydrogen into protons and electrons.HydrogenFuel cells are powered by hydrogen, which is the main competitor to battery-powered vehicles in a post-internal combustion world.The four main sources for the commercial production of hydrogen are natural gas, oil, coal and electrolysis. They account for 48%, 30%, 18% and 4% of global hydrogen production, respectively.Green hydrogen is produced by using electricity to power an electrolyser that splits the hydrogen from water molecules.Namibia, which has among the top three wind and solar resources in the world, has been identified as a potential producer of green hydrogen. The Namibian Ports Authority (Namport) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Dutch Port of R ot terdam (PoR). Authorities in the two ports will collaborate on positioning their ports to become green hydrogen export hubs. They will facilitate an expected growth of the green hydrogen supply chain from Namibia to Rotterdam.Namport has set aside 350 hectares of land at the Port of Walvis Bay North Port for allocation to green hydrogen-related industries.South Africa has the lead at present, with a R75-billion green ammonia export plant planned for the Coega Industrial Development Zone in Gqeberha in the Eastern Cape.Ammonia is easier to transport than hydrogen gas and is readily converted into hydrogen.Electric vehicles herald a new age for mining with demand for metals like cobalt, platinum and lithium on the rise.
