World packaging demand is set to reach $1.22 trillion in 2026, according to the latest Smithers analysis.This comes as the world packaging market returned to solid growth in 2021 following a slowdown witnessed in 2020 as multiple end-use industries were disrupted by Cov id-19.In its latest study on the future of global packaging, Smithers forecasts that, having seen 4.8% growth over 2020-2021, there will be a return to a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% for 2021-2026. This will yield a total market value of $1.22 trillion in 2026, at constant prices.This expansion is conditional on reacting to new imperatives, consumer demand and changes in sales channels for packaged goods.The study showed that China remained the largest national market worldwide, worth $256 billion alone in 2021. It will also be the fastest growing through to 2026, furthering its dominant position. This is ahead of the US, worth $197.2 billion in 2021, and Japan $53.2 billion, India $48.2 billion, and Germany $39.3 billion.Over the next five years, North America will see the slowest rate of expansion, while China’s rapid economic and consumer recovery will make Asia the leading contributor to world growth. The study found that globally paperboard packaging – corrugated, folding cartons and liquid packaging board – was forecast to grow sales at the fastest rate over the next five years.“This is attributable to several factors, first a growing preference for fibre-based packaging aligning with brand owner sustainability goals and legislation focused on the transition towards circular economy models. Paperboard packaging, especially corrugated board, has benefited from the surge in e-commerce sales during the pandemic. As this translates into a more enduring shift in consumer purchasing patterns, it will underpin additional growth through the 2020s.”Simultaneously, reads the study, the use of folding cartons will increase in four sectors - luxury items, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and retail food carryout formats.According to Smithers, the second-fastest-growing material segments will be rigid and f lexible plastics. While these are often viewed as the least sustainable packaging types, both will benefit from design innovation and a raft of new recycling technologies, both mechanical and chemical, over the five-year Smithers forecast period. They will also continue to prove popular in developing markets, where they present convenient, effective, low-cost solutions as consumers transition to buying more packaged goods.In its forecast Smithers said glass, metal, other packaging and f lexible papers were set to grow at lower rates than the global average. Flexible foil consumption is forecast to decline.In line with the ongoing fight against the global pandemic, healthcare is forecast to grow packaging sales at the fastest rate, followed by food, and then beverages. In industrial formats, said Smithers, intermediate bulk container (IBC) sales were predicted to grow at the fastest rate, complemented by increased demand for plastic and steel drums due to their durability a nd reusabilit y.Paperboard packaging, especially corrugated board, has benefited from the surge in e-commerce sales during the pandemic.– Smithers Report“
