There’s renewed optimism for the country’s summer crop production after fears that heavy rains at the start of the season would threaten yield.According to data released by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), overall improvements are evident in most crop production estimates. The maize harvest was lifted by 1% from the February estimate to 14.7 million tonnes (down 10% year-on-year), while the soybean crop has been lifted by 4% and is now estimated at 1.9 million tons. The sunf lower seed production estimate has increased by 5% and groundnuts by 7%. Sorghum is one of the only crops that has not shown any improvement, recording the sharpest decline year-on-year - down by 36%. According to the Agricultural Business Chamber (AgBiz), this broadly optimistic production data will, nonetheless, have minimal impact on prices. “As with the previous years, the domestic grains and oilseeds prices primarily follow the global markets, where the Russia-Ukraine war worries continue to present upside pressures on prices, which ref lect in the South African grains market,” reads a response to the CEC report.Agricultural economists remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the agricultural sector after its solid performance of registering an 8% year-on-year increase in 2021. The heavy rains experienced at the start of the season could still lead to a somewhat lower harvest than the 2020/21 production season, while the slight annual decline in yield, combined with a higher base of 2021, could see agriculture’s gross value-add contract this year.
