West Africa is projected to grow at a steady rate throughout 2022.While Nigeria’s economy experienced a recession in 2020, growth is expected to reach about 3.2% this year, according to the African Development Bank Group (A f DB).Although this indicates a rebound, the bank has sounded the following cautionary in its recent report, African Economic Outlook 2022: “Growth will decelerate in Nigeria due to persistently low oil production and rising insecurity. Inf lation is projected to remain elevated at 16.9% in 2022 and to stay above pre-pandemic levels in 2023, fuelled mainly by rising food, diesel and gas prices.” The bank goes on to state that capital inf lows are projected to recover, while oil exports are expected to increase slightly. The benefit of a forecast positive oil price shock on exports may, however, be partly offset by a weak output effect due to lower oil production.In Ghana, the other regional powerhouse, the outlook is more positive, with the country having seen an estimated growth of 5% in 2021 – up from 0.4% in 2020. The outlook remains positive, with a projected GDP growth of at least 5.3% this year and 5.1% in 2023.This growth is being supported by the Covid-19 Alleviation and Revitalisation of Enterprises Support Programme, also known as Ghana Cares, a comprehensive three-and-a-half-year programme aimed at mitigating the impact of the pandemic and returning the country to a sustained path of robust growth.It is also seen as an opportunity to create a more resilient and transformed economy, representing strategic and catalytic interventions that will foster a faster recovery and boost the country’s post-Covid-19 economic transformation.According to several analysts, West Africa has been negatively affected by the Russia-Ukraine war, resulting in increased energy and food prices. In Ghana, inf lation is projected to surge to 15% in 2022 before falling to 9.1% in 2023. The Bank of Ghana is expected to adopt a tight monetary policy stance.Another country that’s expected to see positive growth is Benin. The figure forecast for this year is 6.1% – slightly lower than the 7% expected for 2021. However, the ongoing growth projection will rely on agricultural reforms as well as improvements in public financial management and the business climate.According to the Af DB, Burkino Faso’s prospects for economic growth this year are expected to be undermined by socio-political instability following the coup that broke out in January. Economic activity is forecast to be slow, although gold mining continues to offer some support at present. The outlook for Cabo Verde remains uncertain due to the country’s prolonged drought as well as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The country imports an estimated 11% of its oil and more than 8% of all cereal from Russia.Another West African country impacted by the war is Côte d’Ivoire. Growth is expected to slow to 6% in 2022 before rebounding to 6.7% next year. This will be driven by agriculture, industrial activity and transport.The Af DB says its outlook for The Gambia remains challenging. The country is dependent on global economic recovery for its tourism and trade channels. Growth is projected to be only 4.8% this year. Guinea is also expected to see growth of only about 4.9% in 2022 before jumping to 5.7% in 2023.
